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Company Reports

04 November 2024

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Nickel Weekly (04 November 2024): USD 15,722/ton (-2.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 28 Oct – 01 Nov 2024, nickel prices fell to USD 15,722/ton (-2.8% WoW). While China showed signs of recovery in nickel ore demand, as indicated by the increase in China’s nickel ore port inventory to 10.582 million wmt (+1.9% WoW), persistent oversupply caused by robust production from Indonesia and Australia continues to dampen nickel prices.
  • In addition, pressure on NPI arises from weak downstream consumption, as declines in stainless steel prices and demand have widened the losses of steel mills, despite merchants offering discounts to stimulate transactions. Although NPI prices remain weak and mills have ample raw material inventories, steel mill operators remain cautious, resulting in muted market activity.
  • We maintain our FY24 nickel price forecast at USD 16,900/ton (YTD: USD 17,038/ton) due to persistent pressure from oversupply and weak demand outlook. Stock-wise, we retain NCKL, supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost, as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x).

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