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Company Reports

04 November 2024

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INTP: BUY (Upgrade) – TP: IDR 7,700 – 3Q24 Results

Strength
Acquisition of Semen Grobogan in 1Q24 propelled 3Q24 sales volumes to 5.5mn tons (+9.5% YoY), raising revenue to IDR 5.2tn (+4.8% YoY); improvements in 3Q24 margins, driven by -2% YoY drop in fuel costs (42% of COGS) as INTP transitions toward solar energy


Opportunity
The government’s Three Million Homes program is expected to stimulate demand in 4Q24 and beyond; recent further YTD market underperformance and most bad news fully priced-in may present trading opportunities

Weakness
3Q24 blended ASP fell -4.3% YoY/ -5.2% QoQ to IDR 953k per ton, marking its lowest level since 2Q22, due to price war; the decline in 3Q24 brought 9M24 ASP down to IDR 973k per ton (-5.9% YoY)


Threat
Intense competition from Chinese players may trigger another price war, extending down-trading trend; IDR depreciation could lead to higher fuel (42% of COGS) and raw materials costs (22%)

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INTP 3Q24 results

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INTP 3Q24 results

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