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Company Reports

05 November 2024

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TLKM: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 3,600

Strength:

+3.6% QoQ growth in 3Q24 net profit, primarily due to unrealized investment gains, particularly from GoTo, whose fair value increased to IDR 66/share (2Q24: IDR 50/share); higher data payload in 3Q24 (+4.4% QoQ, 13.8% YoY) indicated robust  demand for data services

Weakness:

Weaker revenue in 3Q24 (-2.5 QoQ; -2.2 YoY), mainly due to seasonality and low consumer spending, which pressured ARPU and subscriber base; faster-than-anticipated decline in legacy segment (Voice & SMS) led to significant drop in Telkomsel’s 3Q24 top line of -26.3% YoY

Opportunity:

Recovery of consumer spending may help increase ARPU and data payload; given high demand for data storage, TLKM’s expansion to data center is expected to generate additional revenue boost; low penetration rate of fixed broadband in Indonesia (+-20%) provides solid foundation for future growth

Threat:

Slower-than-expected consumer spending recovery, regulatory charges (high frequency usage fee and universal service obligation), lack of incentives, and uncertainties regarding spectrum auction may soften TLKM’s growth; possible continued YTD market under-performance

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TLKM One Pager 3Q24

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TLKM One Pager 3Q24

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