Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

22 December 2024

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Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 23 December 2024

  • Stabilitas Ekonomi di Tengah Tekanan Eksternal: Indonesia menunjukkan kekuatan ekonominya dengan surplus perdagangan sebesar USD 4.42 miliar di November 2024, langkah-langkah fiskal yang kuat, dan keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di 6%. Namun, rupiah menghadapi tekanan karena Federal Reserve AS merevisi proyeksi penurunan suku bunga tahun 2025 dari lima menjadi dua, yang memperkuat dolar AS dan meningkatkan volatilitas pasar negara berkembang.

 

  • Stimulus USD 51.65 Miliar dan Upaya Energi Terbarukan: Pemerintah meluncurkan stimulus USD 51.65 miliar untuk tahun 2025 guna mengimbangi dampak kenaikan PPN menjadi 12%. Indonesia juga menargetkan investasi energi terbarukan senilai IDR 2,200 triliun dalam 10 tahun mendatang, dengan fokus ke proyek-proyek panas bumi, surya, dan nuklir, meskipun ada masalah penundaan dan regulasi.

 

  • Dinamika Politik: Pemecatan Jokowi dan Gibran dari PDI-P mengisyaratkan perubahan besar di peta politik. Sementara itu, usulan Presiden Prabowo untuk menghapuskan Pilkada langsung mendapat reaksi keras serta kekhawatiran tentang kemunduran demokrasi.

 

  • Transformasi Digital: Indonesia memajukan ekonomi digitalnya melalui inovasi berbasis AI untuk UKM, adopsi blockchain, dan investasi keamanan siber. Pemerintah juga menawarkan peluang investasi pusat data kepada Elon Musk, demi memposisikan Indonesia sebagai pusat teknologi regional.

 

  • Inisiatif Lingkungan dan Kesejahteraan Sosial: Upaya adaptasi iklim mencakup pengembangan energi panas bumi dan konservasi hutan bakau, sementara kritik terhadap program reboisasi menunjukkan tantangan dalam upaya mencapai keberlanjutan. Di bidang sosial, kenaikan upah minimum di Tangerang dan program makanan gratis Jakarta menjadi bentuk langkah-langkah menuju inklusivitas tenaga kerja dan pengentasan kemiskinan di perkotaan.

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