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26 August 2024

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Nickel Weekly (26 August 2024): USD 16,453/ton (+2.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 19–23 August 2024, nickel prices went up +2.8% WoW, averaging USD 16,453/ton, on the back of significant rebalancing currently occurring in global nickel market, with Australia cutting its 2024 production by 19% to 165,000 tons and Russia's Nornickel reducing output by 17–22% due to maintenance delays. China is scaling back its Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) production by 50,000 tons as it increasingly relies on cheaper imports from Indonesia.
  • Despite these cutbacks, Indonesia is set to increase its 2024 nickel output by over 300,000 tons, a crucial move to meet global demand, particularly in the EV battery sector. The shift highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the nickel industry as it navigates economic pressures and supply chain adjustments.
  • We retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,201/ton). Stock-wise, we maintain NCKL as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x)  due to anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost.

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