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23 September 2024

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Gold Weekly (23 September 2024): USD 2,584/Oz (+2.0% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 16 – 20 September 2024, average gold prices rose +2.0% WoW to USD 2,584/oz from USD 2,534/oz, while DXY index went down -0.7%. The Fed’s 50 bps rate cut, the first since 2020, triggered a new commodity cycle, with gold prices surging toward all-time highs despite initial uncertainty. Gold began to climb after the announcement, crossing the psychological resistance level of USD 2,600/oz.
  • In addition, the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy decisions, including the possibility of additional rate cuts at the Fed’s November 7 meeting, combined with strong buying momentum from central banks, continues to bolster gold's upward trajectory.
  • However, if the Fed were to fail to deliver further rate cuts in 4Q24, there could be a slight cut in our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,500/oz (YTD: USD 2,288/oz), with the upcoming US jobs reports potentially sparking significant volatility in gold prices. Stockwise, MDKA (TP IDR 3,000; 10.9x EV/EBITDA FY24F) remains as our top pick on high likelihood of profitability and  its Weda Bay smelter commissioning.

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