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07 October 2024

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Gold Weekly (07 October 2024): USD 2,653/Oz (-0.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 30 Sep – 04 Oct 2024, average gold prices remained flattish (-0.1% WoW to USD 2,653/oz, from USD 2,655/oz), while DXY index rose +1.0% WoW. Gold faced some pressure, briefly dropping below USD 2,640/oz as investors turned to profit-taking during the last days of September, before quickly rebounding above USD 2,650/oz amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
  • Market players expect gold to continue its uptrend, supported by FOMC rate cuts. However, stronger-than-expected September non-farm payroll data (+254,000, forecast: +140,000) may lead to delays of further rate cuts due to the rising possibility of ‘soft landing’, applying pressure on gold prices.
  • In light of soft landing expectations and less urgency for rate cuts, we revised our FY24 gold price estimate to USD 2,400/oz from USD 2,500/oz (YTD: USD 2,306/oz). Upcoming inflation data should serve as a key catalyst for gold prices, as it may shape the Fed’s future policy decisions. Stock wise, MDKA (TP IDR 3,000; 10.9x EV/EBITDA FY24F) remains our top pick on high likelihood of profitability and the expected commissioning of its Weda Bay smelter.

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