Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

12 November 2024

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EXCL: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 2,900

Strength

Positive YoY growth in 3Q24 top-line, driven by increased number of subscribers and higher data payload as more activities shift to digital platforms and online entertainment becomes more widespread; stable subscriber base with low single-digit churn rate.

Weakness

-39.9% QoQ decline in 3Q24 bottom-line, primarily due to share of loss from associates, particularly the underperforming Link Net (20% stake); weak purchasing power led to downtrading among subscribers, causing lower data payload in 3Q24.

Opportunity

750k new subscribers acquired from First Media may be converted into new mobile subscribers through EXCL’s Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) strategy; AI adoption is expected to benefit EXCL’s operations by enabling more efficient cost management, faster customer behavior analysis, and improved subscriber experience.

Threat

Narrowing gap between EXCL and TLKM’s mobile ARPU suggests that EXCL may need to consider lowering its prices to remain competitive; price war in fixed broadband (FBB) market could pressure the company to reduce its ARPU, potentially leading to further earnings downgrades.

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EXCL One Pager 3Q24

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EXCL One Pager 3Q24

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