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Company Reports

19 August 2024

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Copper Weekly (19 August 2024): USD 8,695/ton (+2.4% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 12–16 August 2024, copper prices increased +2.4% WoW as the risk of supply disruptions outweighed continued growth in copper inventory at LME-registered warehouses, which rose 1,600 tons to 309,050 tons.
  • A strike at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine accounting for nearly 5% of global supply, sparked concerns about potential supply disruptions. Additionally, positive U.S. retail sales and jobs data eased fears of potential recession, which had previously driven base metal prices down over the past three weeks.
  • While we maintain our average FY24 copper price forecast at USD 9,500 per ton (YTD: USD 9,115 per ton), we see some potential downside to our projection due to potential decline in demand from China and worries surrounding lower global economic growth. On the stock front, we retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP of IDR 3,300 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 12.2x), reflecting 40% upside potential, as the company turns into profit in 2024, supported by its smelter in Weda Bay, Maluku.

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