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07 October 2024

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Copper Weekly (07 October 2024): USD 9,792/ton (+1.5% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 30 Sep – 04 Oct 2024, copper prices rose +1.5% WoW to USD 9,792/ton,  driven by optimism surrounding China's economic stimulus, which are expected to provide much-needed boost to the country’s struggling economy.
  • Recent measures by the Chinese government have contributed to positive sentiment in global copper market: 1) Policies were unveiled to support its economy and housing market, including interest rate cuts and lower mortgage costs; 2) The PBOC also introduced RMB 500 billion swap program and RMB 300 billion in low-cost loans to help banks fund stock purchases and buybacks.
  • Therefore, we remain cautiously optimistic and maintain our average FY24 copper price forecast at USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,145/ton) despite China’s industrial growth which currently face headwinds due to potential global economic slowdown. We retain MDKA as our top pick in the sector, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), thanks to its potential to reach profitability in 2024 and the anticipated completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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