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Company Reports

09 September 2024

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Oil Weekly (09 September 2024): USD 73.5/bbl (-7.7% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 02 – 06 September 2024, Brent prices plunged -7.7% WoW (from USD 79.7/bbl) and WTI prices plummeted -8.5% WoW (from USD 75.4/bbl), primarily on lower-than-expected August non-farm payroll data of 142k (forecast: 161k).
  • OPEC+ has announced its decision to delay planned production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of November, exacerbating the decline in oil prices. Additionally, concerns over potential recession led money managers to reduce their net long positions in US crude futures and options during the week.
  • As we expect some price support stemming from extended supply cuts, we maintain average oil forecast at USD 84.5/bbl (avg YTD: USD 82.1/bbl). At this stage, we retain MEDC as our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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