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18 November 2024

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Copper Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 9,010/ton (-4.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 11 – 15 November 2024, copper prices fell -4.3% WoW to USD 9,010/ton, pressured by strengthening USD and bearish sentiment from downstream customers in China amid declining prices. Potential trade tensions between the US and China, spurred by President Trump’s promises to intensify trade war and impose 60% – 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, kept market participants on edge, further limiting demand recovery.
  • Copper faced more pressure as US Oct-PPI rose +2.4% YoY, exceeding expectations (+2.3% YoY). Initial jobless claims dropped to 217,000, lowest since May 2024, signalling stronger US economic optimism. Fed Chair Powell's remarks on solid financial performance and no urgency for rate cuts boosted USD, intensifying pressure on copper amid ongoing industrial demand concerns.
  • We cut our average FY24 copper forecast from USD 9,200/ton to USD 9,150/ton (YTD: USD 9,178/ton) due to China-US trade war concerns and weak global economic outlook. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability in 2024 and the expected completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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