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08 December 2023

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Waspadai efek BOJ dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS

Waspadai efek BOJ dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS

Aksi beli di pasar obligasi global terhenti kemarin yang dimulai dengan kenaikan yield 10Y JGB 12 bps menjadi 0.76% akibat pernyataan para pejabat Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) untuk mengakhiri kebijakan suku bunga negatif di Jepang (lihat fixed income news). Menurut kami, rencana BOJ untuk mengakhiri kebijakan suku bunga negatif dipicu oleh kemungkinan The Fed mempercepat pemangkasan suku bunga. Ekspektasi pasar terhadap dovish pivot The Fed akan diuji malam ini melalui rilis data pasar tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat bulan November. Pasar global merespon hal ini dengan melakukan aksi jual taktis terhadap instrumen 10Y UST, sehingga yield naik 5 bps menjadi 4.15%. Akan tetapi, yield INDON masih turun untuk semua tenor, yakni 10Y (-5 bps menjadi 5.21%), 5Y (-5 bps menjadi 4.89%, dan 2Y (-2 bps menjadi 5.09%. Sementara itu, yield instrumen INDOGB bergerak sideways. Kami melihat kemungkinan terjadinya koreksi taktis di pasar SBN hari ini. Menurut kami, yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan naik hari ini menuju rentang 6.6-6.7% yang diikuti dengan kenaikan yield 2Y dan 5Y INDOGB menuju rentang 6.6-6.7%. Pergerakan Rupiah kami perkirakan mendatar di rentang IDR 15,450-15,650 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Gubernur BOJ beri sinyal akhiri kebijakan suku bunga negatif Jepang. Gubernur Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) Kazuo Ueda yang menyatakan kepada parlemen (Diet) Jepang bahwa mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga negatif akan semakin sulit di masa mendatang. Deputi Gubernur BOJ Ryozo Himino sudah memberi sinyal untuk mengakhiri kebijakan suku bunga negatif Jepang pada hari Rabu (6/12) dengan peryataan diakhirinya kebijakan suku bunga negatif tidak akan membawa dampak signifikan atas perekonomian Jepang (Nikkei)

Global Economic News: Deflasi Thailand memburuk menjadi -0.44% yoy (Oct: -0.31% yoy; Cons: 0.3% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti turun menjadi 0.58% yoy (Oct: 0.66% yoy; Cons: 0.6% yoy). Hal ini menunjukkan semakin akutnya pelemahan ekonomi di Thailand yang bisa memicu Bank Sentral Thailand (BOT) untuk tidak menaikkan suku bunga kembali, seperti kejutan saat bulan September. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Cadangan devisa BI meningkat menjadi USD 138.1bn di bulan November (Oct: USD 133.1bn). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh rilis sukuk global pada awal bulan yang menghasilkan pendanaan USD 2bn, lelang SVBI dan SuVBI yang menghasilkan pendanaan USD 430.6mn, serta peningkatan arus masuk modal asing ke pasar SBN sebesar USD 1.5bn. Cadangan devisa di bulan November setara dengan 6.3 bulan impor atau 6.1 bulan impor dan utang jangka pendek. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Desember 2023 (En)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Desember 2023 (En)

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