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23 September 2024

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Nickel Weekly (23 September 2024): USD 16,033/ton (+2.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 16 – 20 September 2024, nickel prices rose +2.1% WoW, averaging USD 16,033/ ton, as market players priced in Russia’s (7.3% of global production; 3rd in the world) nickel supply cuts, which could help alleviate current global nickel oversupply issue.
  • APEI forecasts La Niña impacts, including heavy rainfall and flooding, may cause 20-40% drop in production of mining commodities (including nickel), leading to higher prices. The US Climate Prediction Center forecasts 70% chance of La Niña developing in the Southern Hemisphere, including in our mining regions, from August to October 2024, possibly continuing into early 2025 with 79% probability.
  • We retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,088/ton). Stock-wise, we maintain NCKL as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x) due to anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost.

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