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04 November 2024

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UNTR: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 29,600

SWOT Analysis of The Results (SSI: Above, Cons: Above)

Strength

Solid 3Q24 revenue growth, driven mainly by increased mining contracting activities (c.331 Mbcm; +8.9% QoQ, +20.4% YoY) and heavy equipment sales (1,174 units; +15.0% QoQ, -3.8% YoY), along with higher ASP thanks to favorable sales mix; FX gain of IDR 810bn (2Q24: IDR -311bn) on stronger IDR

Weakness

3Q24 coal mining revenue declined to IDR 6.05tn (-27.3% QoQ) due to lower sales volumes (c.2.6 MT; -26.5% QoQ, +2.3% YoY) on adverse weather and ASP (IDR 2.3mn/ton; -1.2% QoQ, -45.9% YoY); gold revenue dropped to IDR 2.64tn (-7.2% QoQ) as sales volumes fell to c.55 koz (-9.8% QoQ)

Opportunity

Higher coal production volumes ahead of the upcoming winter season, coupled with moderate La Niña projection, may boost volumes and demand for mining activities and heavy equipment

Threat

Potential decline in prices, driven by insufficient stimulus from China and reduced imports from India as the country pivots toward renewable energy, could adversely affect demand for coal and mining activities

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