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05 November 2024

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ANTM: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,800

SWOT Analysis of The Results (SSI: Above, Cons: Above)

Strength

Solid 3Q24 revenue due to strong gold sales volumes (405 koz; +42% QoQ, +112% YoY) and ASP (USD 2,639/oz; +9% QoQ, +28% YoY); improved 3Q24 EBIT, which we attribute to lower opex/sales of 3.8% (-120 bps QoQ, -530 bps YoY)

Weakness

3Q24 earnings plummeted, mainly due to the decline in GPM to 10.5% (-960 bps YoY, -150 bps QoQ) following the drop in gold cash margins to USD 67/oz (-59.8% YoY), driven by substantial retail buyback post gold rally

Opportunity

Gold rally is likely to persist due to geopolitical tensions and influx of purchases by central banks, pushing Oct-2024 price to USD 2,679/oz; YTD market underperformance coupled with earnings upgrade present buying opportunities

Threat

Elevated gold prices (>USD 2,700/oz) may increase the likelihood of major retail profit-taking amid macro uncertainty, potentially compelling ANTM to buyback at higher prices and pressuring its gold cash margins

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