Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

10 August 2023

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Pasar obligasi domestik hadapi tekanan jual asing

Pasar obligasi domestik menghadapi tekanan jual dari investor asing yang lebih kuat minggu ini dibandingkan minggu sebelumnya. Berdasarkan aliran neto modal asing, telah terjadi arus keluar modal asing dari pasar obligasi senilai USD -96.5mn pada dua hari pertama pekan ini. Arus keluar modal asing terkuat terjadi di lelang SUN selasa lalu (8/8) saat Kementerian Keuangan menurunkan nilai penerbitan SUN baru menjadi IDR 9.85tn (Prev: IDR 14tn) untuk menjaga kestabilan imbal hasil (yield) 10Y INDOGB di kisaran 6.3%. Sayangnya, rencana tersebut direspon negatif oleh investor asing yang berharap koreksi yield 10Y INDOGB ke batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.4%). Kami memperkirakan tekanan jual dari pihak asing akan terus terjadi selama yield 10Y INDOGB bertahan di bawah 6.4%. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah masih akan tertekan hari ini dalam rentang masing-masing di 6.3-6.4% dan IDR 15,150-250 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian BUMN pertimbangkan opsi PKPU bagi WSKT. Tindakan ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran di kalangan investor obligasi korporasi karena pengalaman yang dialami oleh para pemegang obligasi PT Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP). Dalam kasus PKPU WSBP, para pemegang obligasi mendapatkan dua solusi, yang pertama: pembayaran dengan skema CFADS (grace period bunga utang hingga tahun ke-4 dan pembayaran pokok di tahun ke-5 dan 6); yang kedua: obligasi wajib konversi menjadi saham pada tahun ke-10. Menurut kami, aksi PKPU dapat mengurangi kepercayaan investor terhadap obligasi sektor konstruksi. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: Tiongkok alami deflasi CPI pada bulan Juli sebesar -0.3% yoy (Jun: 0%; Cons: -0.4% yoy). Sementara itu, deflasi PPI Tiongkok menurun menjadi -4.4% yoy (Jun: -5.4% yoy; Cons: -4.1% yoy). Untuk mengatasi hal ini, Bank Sentral Tiongkok menjanjikan bantuan pendanaan bagi para perusahaan swasta Tiongkok terutama di bidang properti. Saat ini investor memperkirakan PBOC akan kembali menurunkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat untuk menstimulasi ekonomi Tiongkok keluar dari deflasi. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks penjualan ritel turun lebih rendah dari proyeksi BI pada bulan Juni menjadi 222.9 (May; 223.5; BI Forc: 223.2) dan diperkirakan terus melemah di bulan Juli menjadi 212.7. Penurunan penjualan ritel Juni dipicu oleh kontraksi konsumsi peralatan informasi dan telekomunikasi, seperti smartphone dan komputer (-7.6% mom), serta perlengkapan rumah tangga (-2.9% mom). Bank Indonesia memperkirakan penjualan ritel di bulan Juli dipicu oleh turunnya konsumsi makanan, minuman dan tembakau (-17.3% mom). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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