8M23 Monthly Data Package Update

Adjusments in August. IoH raised the headline prices for its IM3 data packages (Freedom Internet) by +10% - +33% MoM in Aug-23, and it also launched two new high-ARPU packages with effective data yields of IDR 2.13/MB (Freedom Internet 400 GB; IDR 850k/month) and IDR 2.14/MB (Freedom Internet 70 GB; IDR 150k/month); it is worth noting that IM3’s average effective data yield sits at ~IDR 2.97/MB. Regarding its Tri packages, we saw no adjustment in Aug-23. Other MNO companies also made several adjustments; EXCL adjusted the headline price for its 7-day Xtra Combo Mini package by ~9-120% MoM, and it also introduced a new high-ARPU package, Xtra Combo Plus VIP 26 GB (IDR 96k/month) with an effective data yield of IDR 3,67/MB (average data yield of EXCL’s other Xtra Combo Plus VIP packages: IDR 3.5/MB). EXCL also added new 30-day Live.On packages (Boost, Prime, and Ultra) with effective data yields ranging from IDR 1.5/MB - IDR 2.9/MB (average effective data yield of other Live.On 30-day packages: IDR 2.3/MB). Meanwhile, TSEL increased the main data of its Internet Max 11 GB (8+3 GB, +44% MoM), transforming it into Internet Max 14 GB. TSEL also adjusted its Internet Max 18 GB package by adding more main data (10+10 GB, +100% MoM) and cutting the bonus quota in half to 4 GB, transforming it into Internet Max 24 GB; the packages’ effective data yields fell by -21% and -25% MoM. For FREN, we did not notice any adjustments in its packages. Although TSEL took a more aggressive stance, we expect the healthy pricing environment to remain intact, as other telco companies continue their ARPU-centric strategy.

Adjustments in FBB and FMC packages. EXCL cut the headline prices for some of its XLHOME packages by 2-5% MoM (Value and Family Package) while increasing the speed limit for its Value, Smart, and Family packages by ~50-100%, cutting the effective yields by 35-50% MoM. As for other telco companies, we saw minimal adjustments in packages and headline prices. From the FMC market, TLKM introduced new packages in Aug-23 (Dynamic 1P, Complete 1P, and Complete 2P) with monthly subscription rates ranging from IDR 370K-850K and effective price per Mbps ranging from IDR 3k-12.4K/Mbps (Telkomsel One Package’s  average effective yield: IDR 4.2k/ Mbps). Regarding XL Satu, we saw no adjustment in Aug-23. We maintain our view that despite the intensive competition in the FMC market, we believe it will benefit the telco industry as a whole, as it will lead to better ARPU.

Maintain OW. We believe that MNO companies will continue to focus their efforts on increasing their customer base’s ARPU. However, the competition in FTTH market and FMC market will remain intense for a while, due to the relatively concentrated market.