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02 September 2024

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Nickel Weekly (02 September 2024): USD 16,755/ton (+1.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 27 – 30 August 2024, nickel prices went up +1.8% WoW, averaging USD 16,755/ton, triggered by output disruption from New Caledonia, the world’s third-largest nickel producer. The incident has sparked supply concerns, driving prices to their highest levels in recent months.
  • Additionally, Estrella Resources in Australia reported sizable exploration target at its Carr Boyd nickel-copper project, estimated at around 5-7 million tons. Similarly, Raiden Resources commenced its maiden drilling program at Mt Sholl nickel-sulphide project. These developments are aimed to meet growing nickel demand from EV players, contributing to more optimistic market outlook.
  • We retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,191/ton). Stock-wise, we maintain NCKL as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x) due to anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost.

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