Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

19 August 2024

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Samuel Weekly Economic Report 19 August 2024

Highlight

  • Target Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: APBN 2025 menetapkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sebesar 5.2%, mencerminkan optimisme pemerintah terhadap ketahanan ekonomi domestik Indonesia.
  • Kekhawatiran Defisit Fiskal: Meskipun defisit fiskal ditargetkan turun hingga 2.52%, lebih rendah dari perkiraan sebelumnya, ada potensi pelebaran akibat tekanan pada imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah.
  • Komitmen Prabowo Subianto untuk IKN: Presiden Terpilih Prabowo Subianto telah menegaskan kembali komitmennya terhadap proyek Nusantara, yang telah berhasil mengamankan investasi signifikan meskipun Indonesia menghadapi tantangan utang.
  • Surplus Perdagangan dan Risiko Inflasi: Surplus perdagangan Indonesia turun cukup drastis, didorong oleh meningkatnya impor, yang menandakan pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi, tetapi juga menimbulkan kekhawatiran tentang tekanan inflasi dan potensi pelebaran defisit transaksi berjalan.
  • Dampak Ekonomi Global: Inflasi yang mereda di AS telah memicu spekulasi tentang pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed, yang dapat menstabilkan ekonomi AS tetapi juga berpotensi memperketat kondisi keuangan global, yang akan berdampak pada rupiah dan arus modal Indonesia.

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