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19 August 2024

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Nickel Weekly (19 August 2024): USD 16,004/ton (+0.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 12 – 16 August 2024, nickel prices were flat +0.1% WoW, averaging USD 16,004/ton, despite improved macroeconomic conditions, including weakening U.S. dollar and company-specific factors.
  • On the production front, this unexciting price performance was partly due to First Quantum Minerals’ commercial production at its Enterprise mine in Zambia, projected to be Africa’s largest nickel operation, which is expected to increase global nickel supply.
  • Furthermore, the commencement of 20,000-ton bulk sampling program at Magna Mining's Crean Hill project is forecast to provide substantial nickel ore supply. Given all of this additional supplies, we retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,225/ton). Stockwise, we keep NCKL as our top sector pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x)  due to potential earnings growth ahead on capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost.

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