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Company Reports

16 August 2024

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SCMA 2Q24 Results: HOLD (from SELL) – TP: 134 (from 120)

SWOT Analysis of The Results (SSI: In-line; Cons: Below)

 

Strength

In 2Q24, SCMA experienced YoY revenue growth of 4.6% and improvement in NPM to 8.7% as the impact of ASO normalized; as of June 2024, SCMA held the second-largest audience share (30.4%), while Vidio (SCMA’s OTT platform) posted 49% YoY revenue increase in 1H24, driven by high enthusiasm for Premier League

 

Weakness

Weak consumer spending led to lower ad spend, particularly from e-commerce and cigarettes, severely impacting SCMA’s 2Q24 FTA ad revenue (-18.5% QoQ, -2.5% YoY); with FTA accounting for 73.7% of SCMA’s 2Q24 revenue, the underperformance of this segment will adversely affect the company’s overall numbers

 

Opportunity

The completion of Indonesia's analog switch-off (ASO) program presents an opportunity for SCMA to capture larger audience through digital TV (97% penetration in 11 cities as of March 2024, based on Nielsen); severe market under-performance may provide buying opportunity

 

Threat

IDR depreciation against USD could lead to higher costs for consumer companies, potentially reducing their ad spend; rapid technological advancements could affect ad budgets and consumer spending on subscription services, posing a risk to SCMA's revenue streams

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