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02 September 2024

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Gold Weekly (02 September 2024): USD 2,514/Oz (+0.4% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 26-30 August 2024, average gold prices increased +0.4% WoW to USD 2,514/oz from USD 2,506/oz, while the DXY index fell -0.2% WoW. The rise was caused by expectations for imminent Fed rate cut in mid-September. The weaker U.S. dollar and drop in Treasury yields, with 10-year yield down 25 bps and 2-year yield down 40 bps, have significantly supported the rally in gold price.
  • Over the past week, central banks continued their aggressive gold purchases, with Turkey, Uzbekistan, and India as some of the most active buyers. Turkey added 15 tons to its reserves, while Uzbekistan purchased approximately 26.13 tons, and India added 17.46 tons. This brought global cumulative net purchases YTD to 673 tons.
  • We retain our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,500/oz (YTD: USD 2,267/oz), and continue to favor MDKA as our top pick, with target price (TP) of IDR 3,300 based on FY24 EV/EBITDA of 12.2x.

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