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02 September 2024

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Copper Weekly (02 September 2024): USD 9,179/ton (+0.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 27–30 August 2024, copper prices rose +0.8% WoW, driven by renewed hedge fund interest as expectations for U.S. rate cuts in September and potential recovery in Chinese demand leading into 2025 continued to grow.
  • Copper's crucial role in sectors like EVs and wind turbines underpins its positive market outlook. The global EV market is expected to grow at >20% CAGR through 2030; to note, EV requires around 132 pounds of copper per vehicle, compared to 52 pounds for ICE-powered cars. Wind turbines, whose global capacity is anticipated to expand at > 9% CAGR, use three times more copper per gigawatt than coal-fired plants. These factors contribute to the bullish outlook on copper despite recent price fluctuations.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper price forecast at USD 9,500 per ton (YTD: USD 9,116/ton). On the stock front, we retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP of IDR 3,300 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 12.2x), reflecting 40% upside potential, as the company turns into profit in 2024, supported by its smelter in Weda Bay, Maluku.

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