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Company Reports

09 January 2025

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Palm Oil Weekly (3 – 9 January 2025): Avg. CPO MYR 4,493 (-7.0% WoW)

  • In the last five trading days, CPO prices dropped -7.0% WoW, averaging MYR 4,493/MT, mainly due to the decline in SBO prices (the closest substitute to CPO).
  • The price discount of soybean oil to palm oil now stands at c. USD 47 per ton, marking a significant reversal from 2024 average premium of USD 66/ton. Furthermore, stronger USD (YTD DXY average: 108.9 vs. 2024 average: 104.2) has reduced the attractiveness of commodities priced in USD, including CPO.
  • Malaysia’s January CPO export outlook exerted further pressure on prices, with overseas sales slumping 15% MoM in the first five days of this month. Exports to India, Malaysia’s biggest CPO buyer, fell 82%, following the conclusion of Diwali.
  • In FY24, avg. CPO price reached MYR 4,199/MT (SSI: MYR 4,190/MT). For FY25, we set our forecast at MYR 4,500/MT (YTD: MYR 4,491/MT), up 7.2% YoY, on the back of B40 program and CPO’s defensive nature. Stock-wise, NSSS (TP: IDR 350/sh) and TAPG (TP: IDR 1,050/sh) are our top picks due to their young plantation profiles (<10 years), allowing for higher crop and extraction yields.

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CPO - 3 - 9 January 2025

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CPO - 3 - 9 January 2025

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