Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

10 February 2025

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Copper Weekly (3 – 7 January 2025): Avg. USD 9,068/ton (+1.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, copper prices rose +1.3% WoW to USD 9,068/ton, supported by bullish sentiment on Chinese assets, fuelled by multiple domestic and international institutional activities, including Deepseek (semi-conductor user), and post-Chinese New Year rebound in demand.
  • Additionally, Chile, the world's largest copper producer, raised its 2025 price estimate to USD 4.3/lb (USD 9,480/ton), even after rising production target to 5.8% MT (+4.6% YoY). This reflects strong expectations for copper usage this year. However, concerns over another US-China trade war may weigh on prices.
  • Despite recent price upticks, macro uncertainties persist, particularly regarding trade tensions and global economic risks. Thus, we maintain FY25 average copper price forecast at USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 8,994/ton), despite potential upside. Stock-wise, MDKA remains our top pick (TP: IDR 1,800; FY25 EV/EBITDA: 10.9x), supported by clear profitability path and the recent completion of the company’s Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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