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Company Reports

17 February 2025

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Copper Weekly (10 – 14 January 2025): Avg. USD 9,397/ton (+3.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, copper prices jumped +3.6% WoW to USD 9,397/ton, driven mainly by concerns over US-China tariff war, which could disrupt supply and increase market uncertainty.
  • Additionally, copper wire and cable operating rates surged to 57.1% (+29.8% ppt MoM), with expectations to rise further to 68.78% next week, fuelled by power sector demand. Despite slower-than-expected recovery in infrastructure and real estate, stronger industrial activity and catch-up demand from China’s colder regions could provide additional price support.
  • Recent price upticks and upcoming tariffs prompted some copper consumers to accelerate restocking, increasing prices. However, given ongoing macro uncertainties, we retain FY25 average copper price forecast of USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 9,057/ton). Stock-wise, MDKA remains our top pick (TP: IDR 1,800; FY25 EV/EBITDA: 10.9x), supported by clear profitability path and the recent completion of the company’s Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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