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14 February 2025

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Coal Weekly (07 – 13 February 2025): Avg. USD 108.0/ton (-7.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average coal prices plummeted to USD 108.0/ton (-7.1% WoW), hitting a low of USD 106.3/ton on Thursday. Coal prices experienced downward pressure from weakening oil prices, following growing expectations of resolution to Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • In addition, India’s 2024 coal imports for power generation dropped 2% to 173 Mt, as domestic coal production from Coal India Ltd, the world’s largest coal miner, rose +3.9% YoY to 785.2 Mt. Surge in supply pushed stockpiles at power plants to record highs, reducing India’s import dependency by 5.5 percentage points over a decade to 20.5%.
  • Given potential decline in demand from China and India, coupled with oversupply concerns, we set our 1Q25 and FY25F price forecast at USD 110/t (YTD: USD 116.8/t), down from USD 120/t previously, due to potential continued decline in 2Q25, before possible rebound in 3Q25 on seasonality factor. Stock-wise, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E 12.8x) remains our top pick, supported by its expansion into green energy and earnings contributions from ADMR and SIS.

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