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24 February 2025

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Nickel Weekly (17 – 21 February 2025): Avg. USD 25,229/ton (-0.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices slipped to USD 25,229/ton (-0.1% WoW), as post-holiday demand remained weaker than in previous years, though a mild rebound was seen on Thursday. In addition, seasonal recovery in stainless steel demand has been sluggish, limiting nickel price support.
  • SMM nickel inventory fell to 47,209 mt (-2,250 mt WoW), while refined nickel supply increased to 4,000 t/month, mainly driven by higher Chinese production, and is set to rise by another 4,000 t/month by March-April. However, the DXY index declined on Thursday, providing support for prices but failing to lift the weekly average higher. Furthermore, US Jan-25 retail sales slumped -0.9% MoM, signalling weak consumption and economic slowdown.
  • In light of sluggish market outlook, coupled with potential slowdown in demand from EV industry (9M24 BYD’s market share: 31.3%), we retain FY25 price forecast at USD 15,000/ton (YTD: USD 15,319/ton). Stock-wise, NCKL remains the top pick (TP: IDR 850; FY25 P/E: 7.3x), supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs.

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