Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

10 February 2025

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Nickel Weekly (3 – 7 February 2025): Avg. USD 15,215/ton (-0.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices slipped to USD 15,215/ton (-0.18% WoW) on weak post-Chinese New Year demand in China having led to sluggish trading activity. Nickel ore inventories in Chinese ports saw limited destocking, down only 2 Mwmt WoW to 8.086 Mwmt. Additionally, concerns over US-China trade war 2.0 further pressured market sentiment, raising risks of global economic slowdown, adversely impacting nickel demand.
  • However, during the week prices improved helped by the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports for five years. This could provide medium to long-term price support for nickel. Given these mixed signals, along with slower-than-expected EV adoption, we maintain our FY25 price forecast at USD 15,000/ton (YTD: USD 15,348/ton), balancing near-term headwinds with potential supply constraints.
  • In terms of stock, NCKL, with the highest ROE in the sector, remains our top pick (TP: IDR 850; FY25 P/E: 7.3x), supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs.

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