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Daily Report

22 May 2023

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Waspadai potensi berlanjutnya koreksi pasar obligasi

Imbal hasil INDOGB 10-tahun dan Rupiah melemah pada Jumat lalu (19/5) sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami. Akan tetapi, pelemahan imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10-tahun tidak sebesar ekspektasi kami yakni hanya sebesar 5 bps menjadi 6.44% (SSI: 6.5-6.6%). Sedangkan, yield INDON 10-tahun terkoreksi lebih tajam sebesar 10 bps menjadi 4.7%. Yield INDOGB 2-tahun juga naik signifikan sebesar 10 bps menjadi 5.95%, tetapi tidak menyebabkan perubahan arah indikator selisih yield INDOGB 10- vs. 2-tahun yang signifikan (lihat Chart 2). Walaupun investor obligasi global sudah lebih tenang setelah pidato pimpinan the Fed, Jerome Powell, yang kembali menegaskan komitmen penghentian kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juni, kami memprediksi tekanan koreksi masih berpotensi berlanjut di pasar obligasi karena yield spread INDOGB vs. UST 10-tahun yang hanya sebesar 277bps, lebih rendah dari batas bawah kompetitif di 300 bps. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan beranjak naik ke rentang 6.45-6.55% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah berpotensi terkonsolidasi di rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Protelindo terbitkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Tahap 3 senilai IDR 1.1tn. Penerbitan ini merupakan bagian terakhr dari Obligasi Berkelanjutan 3 yang bernilai IDR 5tn. Sebelumnya, PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia telah menerbitkan obligasi Tahap 1 dan 2 senilai IDR 3.9tn. Obligasi Tahap 3 ini diterbitkan dalam dua seri, yaitu Seri A dengan nilai pokok IDR 797.5bn, kupon 6.15% per tahun dan tenor 370 hari serta Seri B dengan nilai pokok IDR 296tn, kupon 6.5% per tahun dan tenor tiga tahun. PT Fitch Ratings Indonesia menyematkan peringkat “AAA(idn)” kepada obligasi ini. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Jepang naik sesuai konsensus pada bulan April menjadi 3.5% yoy (Mar: 3.2% yoy, Cons: 3.5% yoy). Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada inflasi inti CPI Jepang yang naik menjadi 3.4% yoy (Mar: 3.4% yoy, Cons: 3.1% yoy). Menurut kami, Hal ini merupakan pertanda positif mengenai prospek ekonomi Jepang untuk lolos dari jebakan spiral deflasi yang berlangsung sejak krisis finansial Jepang tahun 1991. Kami memprediksi pasar saham Jepang masih akan berada dalam bullish rally minggu ini. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan menunda implementasi kenaikan tarif PPN menjadi 12% hingga 2025. Meskipun ada penundaan, rasio pajak terhadap PDB 2024 diperkirakan akan mencapai 9.91-10.18% yang lebih tinggi dari target APBN 2023 sebesar 9.61%, tetapi lebih rendah dari rasio tahun 2022 sebesar 10.41% yang disebabkan tingginya harga komoditas akibat invasi Rusia ke Ukraina. Menurut kami tindakan ini akan memiliki dampak positif terhadap ekonomi Indonesia yang lebih dari 50% ditopang oleh konsumsi dalam negeri. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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