• Indonesia’s trade balance rebounded in Mar-26 with the surplus widening to USD 3.32 bn, exceeding both SSI’s forecast of USD 2.1 bn and the market consensus of USD 2.17 bn. Although this looks like a positive external development, deeper decomposition reveals that the upside surprise was driven less by export strength and more by pronounced moderation in import growth, suggesting less comforting signal about domestic demand dynamics.
• ⁠On imports, growth decelerated markedly to 1.51% yoy, down from 10.85% in February, reflecting softer momentum in local absorption. While oil & gas imports rebound modestly (1.34% yoy) following a previous sharp contraction, and non-oil imports still expanded slightly, the overall slowdown points to cooling investment and consumption activity, particularly in capital and intermediate goods demand. In a macro sense, this reinforces the narrative for a more cautious domestic cycle, consistent with recent signals from PMI and consumption indicators.
• Exports, meanwhile, painted a weaker picture. Total exports contracted 3.1% yoy, marking the first decline since November 2025. The weakness was broad-based, particularly in oil & gas exports (-11.84%) on steep declines in crude oil and refined products. Non-oil exports also slipped (-2.52%), reflecting external headwinds, notably disruptions linked to the Iran war and softer demand from the US (-12.83%), EU (-17.63%), and India (-1.28%). The only bright spot was China (+16.22%), displaying demand resilience, partially cushioning Indonesia’s exports.
• In 1Q26 as a whole, export growth was weak, indicating Indonesia’s external sector is entering a fragile phase, where gains are uneven across markets and commodities. This aligns with broader global environment marked by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain realignments, and unbalanced recovery in major economies.
• Looking ahead, Indonesia’s trade-surplus sustainability will hinge on external demand recovery and local demand normalization. Meanwhile, the current elevated surplus was not anchored by stronger export growth, but rather driven by import compression, which is a structurally undesirable driver.