• Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of only USD 0.09 billion in April 2026, narrowing significantly from USD 0.20 billion in the same period last year and coming below both market expectations of USD 1.50 billion and SSI’s forecast of USD 0.17 billion. The latest figure represents the smallest trade surplus since Indonesia briefly recorded a trade deficit during the early stages of the pandemic in April 2020, highlighting the growing pressure on Indonesia’s external balance despite the strong uptick in exports.
• ⁠⁠The key story behind April’s trade performance was exceptional rebound in exports, which surged 21.98% YoY, reversing the 3.10% contraction recorded in March and marking the fastest export growth since August 2022. The improvement was primarily driven by non-oil and gas exports, which expanded by 23.36% YoY, supported by stronger shipments to Indonesia’s major trading partners, particularly the United States (+38.72%), China (+29.56%), Japan (+10.03%), and ASEAN markets (+13.26%). The strong performance suggests that global demand for Indonesian manufactured and commodity exports remained resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and slowing growth in several advanced economies.
• ⁠However, the positive export performance was largely offset by an even stronger acceleration in imports. Total imports jumped 22.49% YoY, sharply higher than 1.51% growth in March and substantially above market expectations. Particularly notable was the surge in oil and gas imports, which rose 85.52% YoY, reflecting a combination of higher energy demand, inventory rebuilding, and elevated import requirements for fuel and refined petroleum products amid the Mid-East conflict. Meanwhile, non-oil and gas imports increased 14.11% YoY, suggesting early purchases for raw materials, intermediate goods, and capital goods on the back of the IDR's continued rapid downward slide.
• ⁠From a macroeconomic perspective, the sharp rise in imports is likely to persist, particularly if IDR depreciation remains uncurbed.
• ⁠That said, the narrow trade surplus reinforces concerns regarding Indonesia’s external position. Following the wider-than-expected current account deficit in Q1 2026, the April trade data indicate that external balances remain under pressure from a combination of weak IDR, high energy imports, and persistent global uncertainty. The deterioration in the trade balance is therefore likely to keep policymakers attentive to both internal and external stability risks, particularly amid continued volatility in IDR exchange rate and global financial markets.
• ⁠Looking ahead, we expect Indonesia’s trade balance to remain in surplus throughout 2026, although at a significantly narrower level compared with previous years, complicating BI's efforts in shoring up the IDR weakness. The recent early allocation of orders by importers and exporters ahead of potential global trade disruptions may continue to support export volumes in the near term. On the import side, demand is likely to remain elevated on continued front loading purchases in imports of capital goods, intermediate and raw materials inputs ahead of the rapidly depreciating local currency.