Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

04 May 2026

By

Samuel Monthly Economic Insight 4 May 2026

Highlights

  • IDR depreciation becomes central macro signal: The currency weakened beyond IDR 17,000/USD, reflecting persistent capital outflows on widening budget deficit, global risk-off sentiment, and tightening global liquidity conditions.

 

  • External shocks compound macro landscape: Escalating Middle East tensions, oil price volatility, and elevated global yields dominated Indonesia’s macroeconomic trajectory throughout April, further compunding our domestic issues such as budgetary concerns.

 

  • Growth is weighed down while quality deteriorates: GDP growth range of ~5.0–5.3% is being weighed down, while weakening manufacturing momentum and the emergence of “jobless growth” highlight structural inefficiencies in translating growth into employment and income gains.

 

  • External buffers begin to deteriorate: FX reserves declined to USD 148.2bn and trade surplus narrowed, marking the start of active deployment of buffers to stabilize the IDR.

 

  • Proactive policy policy stance alleviates domestic pressures: Government strategies—ranging from panda bond issuance, energy security deals, and subsidy recalibration—signal the government's proactive stance in dealing with widening budget deficit and local energy issues.

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