1Q26 preview: growth from higher mall ASPs and PIM 5 partial contribution. Despite weaker seasonality in 1H, we still expect 1Q26 top line to reach IDR 646bn (+1.8% YoY; -14.7% QoQ) with net profit of IDR 269bn (+7.7% YoY; -23.2% QoQ), supported by resilient portfolio structure and contribution from the newly commissioned PIM 5, which came on stream in Mar-26. In 4Q25, revenue came in at IDR 757bn (+11.5% YoY; +24.3% QoQ), bringing FY25 revenue to IDR 2.6tn (+4.9% YoY), in line with our estimate (SSI: 95.0%). The strong 4Q25 top-line was mainly supported by increased contributions from the following segments (64.5% of total FY25 sales): IDR 325bn (+2.5% YoY; +1.3% QoQ) shopping malls, solid hotel performance of IDR 73bn (+13.4% YoY; +7.8% QoQ) on higher occupancy rates, and land & building sales of IDR 90bn (+9.8% YoY; +350.3% QoQ) due to handover timing and low base in 3Q25. Consequently, 4Q25 net profit rose to IDR 349bn (+16.7% YoY; +19.4% QoQ), with NPM rising to 46.1% YoY (3Q25: 46.1%; 4Q24: 44.1%), bringing 12M25 net profit to IDR 1.1tn (+13.9% YoY), in line with our estimate (SSI: 98.0%).

Recurring rental income to remain core earnings driver in FY26F and beyond. We expect recurring rental income to remain as primary earnings contributor (figure 3), reaching 78.3% in FY26F, before further rising to 79.5% in FY27F and 80.0% by FY28F. In FY26F, this is underpinned by the shopping mall segment as key driver of recurring earnings (65.4% of total rental sales), supported by contributions from Pondok Indah Mall 5 (PIM 5), which added ~6,000 sqm of NLA (+3.5% of total mall NLA) following its opening in Mar-26. Meanwhile, the remaining contribution will be supported by resilient recurring income from office (13.7%), hotel (13.3%), and apartment (7.6%) segments on improving occupancy rates and sustained demand in prime locations despite ongoing challenging macroeconomic backdrop. As a result, we forecast FY26F revenue to reach IDR 2.8tn (+7.8% YoY), with net profit of IDR 1.2tn (+10.8% YoY).

BUY with IDR 32,000 TP on proactive management to grow key developments. We like MKPI for its proactive management on continuation to advance its key developments in 2026F, including Pondok Indah Townhouse and Pondok Indah City Walk, to capture sustained demand within its integrated township. Management has also emphasized efforts to enhance accessibility, particularly through the development of a connecting bridge between PIM 3 and PIM 5. In parallel, the company is exploring brownfield expansion at PIM 1 and potential greenfield developments such as Pondok Indah Residence 2. Thus, we reiterate our BUY rating with target price of IDR 32,000, implying 42.4% upside. Our valuation is supported by MKPI’s highest recurring income in the sector of 76.9% and superior ROAA of 12.4% (sector: 4.1%), justifying targeted 50% discount to RNAV. This is further supported by MKPI’s resilient balance sheet, given its net cash position that limits exposure to interest rate volatility. Additionally, MKPI’s relatively low dependence on development revenue provides greater earnings stability amid uncertain macroeconomic environment. Key risks to our call are slower-than-expected rental rate growth and weaker occupancy levels.