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Daily Report

14 June 2023

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Waspadai koreksi setelah rilis data inflasi CPI AS

Antusiasme investor yang tinggi pada lelang SBN kemarin (16/3) memicu bullish rally di pasar sekunder yang tercermin dari penurunan imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10Y dan 5Y sebesar -4 bps menjadi masing-masing 6.28% dan 5.91%. Akan tetapi, aksi jual obligasi di pasar global tadi malam setelah rilis data inflasi CPI berpotensi menimbulkan koreksi di pasar obligasi domestik. Kenaikan yield UST 10Y sebesar 8 bps menjadi 3.81% menyebabkan yield spread INDOGB vs. UST 10Y terus menipis menjadi 247 bps. Selain itu, kondisi bullish steepening di pasar domestik juga terus menipis menjadi 51 bps dari 57 bps sehara sebelumnya. Melihat kondisi ini, kami memperkirakan pasar obligasi dalam negeri akan mengalami koreksi dalam waktu dekat. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y akan terkoreksi menuju rentang 6.3-6.4% hari ini, diikuti depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan memperoleh dana IDR 15tn dari lelang SBN kemarin (13/6). Sesuai dugaan kami, permintaan atas obligasi SBN di pasar lelang primer masih tinggi. Hal ini tercermin dari jumlah penawaran masuk yang naik menjadi IDR 76.2tn (29/5: IDR 58.4tn). Alokasi terbesar diberikan kepada FR0095 dengan tenor 5Y (IDR 4.35tn) dan FR0096 dengan tenor 10Y (IDR 3.5tn). Kementerian Keuangan juga merilis FR0089 yang memiliki tenor 28 tahun dengan nilai nominal pemenangan IDR 1.35tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI AS turun melebihi ekspektasi pada bulan Mei menjadi 4% yoy (Apr: 4.9% yoy; Cons May: 4.1% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti CPI Amerika Serikat juga turun walaupun sedikit di atas konsensus menjadi 5.3% yoy (Apr: 5.5% yoy; Cons May: 5.2% yoy). Menurut kami, rilis data ini memberi ruang bagi the Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan bulan Juni di 5.25%. Akan tetapi, sulit dipastikan apakah tingkat inflasi inti CPI yang bertahan di atas 5% yoy akan mendorong the Fed untuk meningkatkan suku bunga puncak (terminal) pada bulan Juli. Walaupun 61% analis memprediksi kenaikan suku bunga terminal di bulan Juli, kami berpandangan keputusan the Fed akan ditentukan oleh rilis data inflasi bulan Juni. Bila inflasi CPI Juni turun hingga di bawah 3.5% yoy, ada potensi the Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga terminal pada bulan Juli. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks penjualan ritel bulan April lebih baik dari proyeksi BI di 242.9 (Prev: 241.6). Bank Indonesia juga merilis proyeksi indeks penjualan ritel bulan Mei yang diprediksi turun -3.6% mom menjadi 234.2. Hasil ini sejalan dengan prediksi kami sebelumnya, konsumen lebih menahan diri untuk belanja pada bulan puasa yang dimulai pada bulan Maret dan mengalokasikan dana konsumsi mereka ke libur Lebaran pada bulan April. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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