Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

02 March 2023

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Samuel’s Economic & Fixed Income Report

MARKET PREVIEW

  • Pasar saham di wilayah Amerika terkoreksi kemarin yang dipicu oleh semakin besarnya kemungkinan The Fed akan mempertahankan stance kebijakan moneter ketat di sepanjang tahun ini.
  • Investor menilai tekanan inflasi mungkin akan persisten di level yang tinggi untuk waktu yang lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Hal ini terlihat dari perkembangan survey harga bahan baku dalam ISM Manufacturing PMI untuk AS yang melonjak ke level ekspansif (51.3), dimana secara keseluruhan indeks manufacturing AS masih di zona kontraksi kendati ada perbaikan di bulan Februari lalu.
  • Di samping itu, pernyataan Presiden The Fed Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, yang terbuka terhadap usulan kenaikan 50bps Fed Fund Rate pada FOMC meeting 22 Maret nanti semakin memantik spekulasi bahwa The Fed bias saja bergerak lebih agresif dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Penting dicatat bahwa Kashkari merupakan pemilih aktif untuk FOMC meeting tahun 2023.
  • Sontak probabilita traders yang berharap The Fed akan menaikan FFR sebanyak 50bps naik menjadi hampir 30% dari posisi di pekan lalu yang masih di bawah 25%. Sehingga mengerek imbal hasil UST 10Y naik ke level 4% pada intraday sebelum ditutup di level 3.99%, naik 7bps.
  • Untuk di dalam negeri, dengan semakin intensifnya tekanan eksternal jelang FOMC meeting the Fed, kami memperkirakan Imbal hasil SUN 10Y akan mengarah ke 6.89% dengan Rupiah dapat mencapai 15.280/USD pada hari ini.

GLOBAL ECON

PMI manufaktur pemerintah Tiongkok naik pada Februari menjadi 52.6 (prev: 50.1). PMI non-manufaktur pemerintah Tiongkok juga ikut naik menjadi 56.3 (prev: 54.4). (Investing) Comment: Pemulihan perekonomian Tiongkok yang pesat pasca dicabutnya kebijakan zero covid berpotensi mendorong investor asing untuk kembali mengalihkan modal mereka dari Asia Tenggara dan Asia Selatan ke Asia Timur Utara. Hal ini berpotensi membuat nilai tukar mata uang di kawasan tertekan.

PMI manufaktur ISM AS naik tipis pada Februari menjadi 47.7 (prev: 47.4). Rilis data PMI ISM ini mengkonfirmasi resesi sektor manufaktur masih terus berlanjut di Amerika Serikat. (Wall Street Journal). Comment: Rilis data ini merupakan sinyal positif bagi pasar karena resesi sektor manufaktur yang terus berlanjut berpotensi menekan permintaan terhadap tenaga kerja di AS. Akan tetapi hasil ini harus dikonfirmasi dengan rilis data PMI sektor jasa ISM pada tanggal 3 Maret besok. Apabila PMI sektor jasa AS melemah, bahkan sampai ke zona kontraksi, kami memperikarakan sentiment di pasar global bisa berbalik positif.

BUY Recommendation: FR0081, FR0047, FR0073, FR0037, FR0040, FR0054.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Maret 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Maret 2023 (Eng)

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