Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

01 March 2023

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Samuel’s Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

MARKET PREVIEW

  • Pasar keuangan global menutup bulan Februari dengan tren koreksi dipicu oleh perkembangan data makro dan indicator bisnis di AS yang belum sesuai dengan transmisi kebijakan moneter ketat The Fed. Ditambah dengan pernyataan-pernyataan para pejabat The Fed yang konsisten terhadap pendekatan hawkish, maka pasar saat ini memproyeksikan bunga acuan The Fed akan berada di level yang lebih tinggi dan lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya.
  • Imbal hasil UST 10Y kembali naik 3bps ke level 3.94% terutama setelah Bank of America global research merilis outlook-nya terhadap bunga acuan The Fed yang dapat saja naik ke 6% jika menilik masih ketatnya situasi di pasar tenaga kerja AS.
  • Dari kawasan Eropa, data inflasi di Prancis dan Spanyol yang naik dibanding periode sebelumnya serta lebih tinggi dibanding ekspektasi pasar akan menambah tekanan bagi European Bank Central untuk tetap mempertahankan stance kebijakan moneter hawkish dengan kenaikan bunga acuan sebanyak 50bps di meeting selanjutnya.
  • Dengan demikian, kami memproyeksikan Imbal hasil SUN 10Y masih akan sideways di sekitar 6.89% dengan Rupiah diperkirakan menyentuh 15.270/USD pada hari ini karena bayang-bayang ketidakpastian eksternal masih menyelimuti domestik.

 

RILIS DATA / KEBIJAKAN

BPS akan mengumumkan inflasi Februari pada hari ini. Outlook: Kami melihat tekanan harga secara umum masih dalam tren penurunan kecuali untuk komponen bahan pangan, dimana beberapa bahan pokok menunjukan kenaikan jelang persiapan bulan puasa yang akan jatuh pada pertengahan bulan ini. Karenanya, kami memprediksi inflasi bulan Februari 2023 akan melambat ke level 0.20% MoM (Januari: 0.34% MoM, consensus: 0.13% MoM) dengan level YoY akan sedikit naik ke 5.51% (Januari: 5.28% YoY, consensus: 5.42% YoY).

GLOBAL ECON

Inflasi Prancis naik pada Februari menjadi 6.2% yoy (prev: 6% yoy) Inflasi Spanyol juga naik pada Februari menjadi 6.1% yoy (prev: 5.9% yoy). (Reuters) Comment: Kenaikan inflasi di Prancis dan Spanyol merupakan berita yang kurang baik bagi para pelaku pasar global karena berpotensi mendorong Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk mengambil kebijakan moneter yang lebih agresif lagi. Saat ini pasar memperkirakan kenaikan suku bunga acuan ECB bisa mencapai 3.5%. Dengan perkembangan terkini, kami melihat ada kemungkinan revisi ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB menjadi 4%.

Inflasi Vietnam turun pada Februari menjadi 4.3% yoy (prev: 4.9% yoy). Inflasi inti juga turun menjadi 5% yoy (prev: 5.2% yoy). (Investing) Comment: Melemahnya tekanan inflasi di Vietnam merupakan berita positif bagi perkembangan inflasi di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Bank Sentral Vietnam diperkirakan akan menahan suku bunga di kisaran 6% seiring dengan membaiknya tingkat inflasi Vietnam yang sudah mencapai puncak. Hal ini berpotensi membuat Bank Indonesia semakin percaya diri untuk menahan kenaikan suku bunga acuan di level 5.75% pada bulan Maret sesuai pernyataan terkini Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo kepada publik.

DOMESTIC ECON

Menko Perekonomian: Kebijakan DHE akan menyediakan penyangga untuk stabilitas perekonomian. Airlangga Hartarto menyatakan bahwa pemerintah masih akan memfinalisasi revisi PP no 1 tahun 2019 tentang Devisa Hasil Ekspor (DHE) dari kegiatan pengelolaan sumber daya alam. Dimana diharapkan sekitar 30% dari DHE dapat ditahan di perbankan dalam negeri selama minimal 3 bulan yang dapat menambah cadangan devisa Bank Indonesia dalam menghadapai gejolak eksternal ke depan. (Investor Daily) Comment: Pemerintah tidak memberikan tanggal resmi kapan revisi peraturan tersebut akan diimplementasikan. Sementara dari hitungan kasar kami, jika 30% dari DHE masuk ke dalam system perbankan domestic, maka akan ada tambahan devisa sebanyak USD26 Milyar yang dapat memperkuat resiliensi stabilitas makro ke depan.

FIXED INCOME

Penawaran masuk di lelang kemarin mencapai IDR46 Tn. Dimana paling banyak masuk ke tenor acuan yakni 5Y dan 10Y, serta pemerintah memenangkan sebanyak IDR20 Tn atau tercapai bid-to-cover ratio di level 2.3x (DJPPR Kemenkeu) Comment: Minat yang terjaga di lelang kemarin tidak memaksa pemerintah untuk mengambil penawaran yield yang lebih tinggi. Kami melihat dari sisi anggaran, pemerintah belum ada kebutuhan darurat saat ini, jadi imbal hasil yang dimenangkan memang dalam tren naik namun masih dalam pace yang wajar.

BUY Recommendation: FR0081, FR0047, FR0073, FR0037, FR0088, FR0054.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Maret 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Maret 2023 (Eng)

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