Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

20 July 2023

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Animo investor asing atas pasar obligasi domestik tertahan mismatch suku bunga perbankan

Animo investor asing yang tinggi terhadap prospek obligasi domestik tertahan oleh keragu-raguan investor dalam negeri. Tingginya animo investor asing dapat dilihat dari arus masuk modal asing ke pasar obligasi domestik setelah pengumuman data inflasi CPI AS pada Rabu lalu (12/6). Dalam satu minggu terakhir, arus masuk dana asing tercatat sebesar USD 527.4mn. Sayangnya, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB tenor 2Y maupun 10Y tertahan di level masing-masing 6% dan 6.2%. Hal ini disebabkan karena mismatch suku bunga perbankan. Suku bunga JIBOR 1W maupun 1M yang berperan sebagai batas bawah yield 2Y dan 10Y tertahan masing-masing di 6% dan 6.4%. Rasa frustasi para investor asing menimbulkan teori apakah yield INDOGB 10Y dapat turun lebih rendah dari suku bunga acuan 7DRRR, saat ini di level 5.75%. Menurut kami, Tingkat suku bunga 5.75% sudah tidak sesuai dengan kondisi inflasi saat ini di 3.5% yoy serta ke depannya yang berpotensi turun menjadi 2.6% yoy di akhir tahun ini. Menurut kami, rasa frustasi para investor dapat diatasi dengan dimulainya siklus rate cut Bank Indonesia agar lebih selaras dengan situasi inflasi. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y dan Rupiah  masih akan tertahan di rentang masing-masing sebesar 6.2-6.3% dan IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang SBSN 18/7 turun menjadi IDR 24.3tn (4/7: IDR 34tn). Turunnya permintaan dalam lelang SBSN dua hari yang lalu terbalik dengan kenaikan permintaan pada lelang SUN terkini (11/7) menjadi IDR 47.8tn (27/6: IDR 37.6tn). Sementara itu, distribusi lelang penerbitan SBSN bergeser dari tenor pendek (2Y) pada lelang sebelumnya menjadi tenor panjang senilai IDR 1.8tn untuk tenor 13Y (PBS037) dan masing-masing senilai IDR 1.7tn untuk tenor 16Y (PBS034) dan 25Y (PBS033). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Britania Raya turun pada bulan Juni menjadi 7.9% yoy (May: 8.7% yoy; Cons: 8.2% yoy). Inflasi inti CPI juga turun menjadi 6.9% yoy (May: & Cons: 7.1% yoy). Penurunan inflasi Juni yang melebihi konsensus menurunkan ekspektasi besaran kenaikan suku bunga Agustus dari 50 bps menjadi 25 bps. Kami memprediksi suku bunga terminal BOE FY23 naik menjadi 5.5%. (Financial Times)

Domestic Economic News: Utang luar negeri turun pada bulan Mei menjadi USD 398.3bn (Apr: USD 403bn). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh penurunan nilai utang luar negeri swasta sebesar USD 3bn menjadi USD 196.5bn serta utang luar negeri pemerintah sebesar USD 1.5bn menjadi USD 192.6bn. Oleh sebab itu, rasio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB turun menjadi 29.7% (Apr: 30%). Menurut kami, terus menurunnya nilai utang luar negeri bisa mengurangi risiko finansial eksternal Indonesia di tengah ketidakpastian kenaikan puncak suku bunga negara-negara maju. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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