Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

20 July 2023

By

Animo investor asing atas pasar obligasi domestik tertahan mismatch suku bunga perbankan

Animo investor asing yang tinggi terhadap prospek obligasi domestik tertahan oleh keragu-raguan investor dalam negeri. Tingginya animo investor asing dapat dilihat dari arus masuk modal asing ke pasar obligasi domestik setelah pengumuman data inflasi CPI AS pada Rabu lalu (12/6). Dalam satu minggu terakhir, arus masuk dana asing tercatat sebesar USD 527.4mn. Sayangnya, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB tenor 2Y maupun 10Y tertahan di level masing-masing 6% dan 6.2%. Hal ini disebabkan karena mismatch suku bunga perbankan. Suku bunga JIBOR 1W maupun 1M yang berperan sebagai batas bawah yield 2Y dan 10Y tertahan masing-masing di 6% dan 6.4%. Rasa frustasi para investor asing menimbulkan teori apakah yield INDOGB 10Y dapat turun lebih rendah dari suku bunga acuan 7DRRR, saat ini di level 5.75%. Menurut kami, Tingkat suku bunga 5.75% sudah tidak sesuai dengan kondisi inflasi saat ini di 3.5% yoy serta ke depannya yang berpotensi turun menjadi 2.6% yoy di akhir tahun ini. Menurut kami, rasa frustasi para investor dapat diatasi dengan dimulainya siklus rate cut Bank Indonesia agar lebih selaras dengan situasi inflasi. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y dan Rupiah  masih akan tertahan di rentang masing-masing sebesar 6.2-6.3% dan IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang SBSN 18/7 turun menjadi IDR 24.3tn (4/7: IDR 34tn). Turunnya permintaan dalam lelang SBSN dua hari yang lalu terbalik dengan kenaikan permintaan pada lelang SUN terkini (11/7) menjadi IDR 47.8tn (27/6: IDR 37.6tn). Sementara itu, distribusi lelang penerbitan SBSN bergeser dari tenor pendek (2Y) pada lelang sebelumnya menjadi tenor panjang senilai IDR 1.8tn untuk tenor 13Y (PBS037) dan masing-masing senilai IDR 1.7tn untuk tenor 16Y (PBS034) dan 25Y (PBS033). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Britania Raya turun pada bulan Juni menjadi 7.9% yoy (May: 8.7% yoy; Cons: 8.2% yoy). Inflasi inti CPI juga turun menjadi 6.9% yoy (May: & Cons: 7.1% yoy). Penurunan inflasi Juni yang melebihi konsensus menurunkan ekspektasi besaran kenaikan suku bunga Agustus dari 50 bps menjadi 25 bps. Kami memprediksi suku bunga terminal BOE FY23 naik menjadi 5.5%. (Financial Times)

Domestic Economic News: Utang luar negeri turun pada bulan Mei menjadi USD 398.3bn (Apr: USD 403bn). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh penurunan nilai utang luar negeri swasta sebesar USD 3bn menjadi USD 196.5bn serta utang luar negeri pemerintah sebesar USD 1.5bn menjadi USD 192.6bn. Oleh sebab itu, rasio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB turun menjadi 29.7% (Apr: 30%). Menurut kami, terus menurunnya nilai utang luar negeri bisa mengurangi risiko finansial eksternal Indonesia di tengah ketidakpastian kenaikan puncak suku bunga negara-negara maju. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 Juli 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 23, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 22, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 18, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 17, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 16, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 15 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 15, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 12 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 11, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 10, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 09, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 08, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – Jul 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 3 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 03, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Jul 2, 2024

Telco Sector – Neutral – Disruption from Space

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – JuL 02, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Quarterly Macro Report

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – JuL 01, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 28 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 28, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 27, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 25, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024