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10 March 2025

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Copper Weekly (3 – 7 March 2025): Avg. USD 9,523/ton (+0.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the last five trading days, copper prices rose +0.8% WoW to USD 9,523/ton on approaching March peak season, despite quite weak February operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises (70.3%, -0.7 Ppt MoM).
  • Peak season signals emerged as China’s copper inventories dropped to 368,000 mt (-2.4% WoW) and LME copper stocks declined to 257,325 mt (-1.8% WoW), marking the first post-holiday drawdown. March copper demand is set to rise, with the pipe & tube operating rate reaching 82.3% (+12.1 ppt MoM), driven by household air conditioner production (+11.4% YoY) and export growth (+9.2% YoY), alongside potential recovery in enamelled wire (Mar: 72.9%; +16.9 ppt MoM) and cathode rod enterprises’ operating rates (Mar: 71.3%; +3.4 ppt MoM).
  • Given potential long-term global supply disruptions but coupled with current global economic slowdown, we raise our 2025F copper price forecast from USD 8,500/ton to USD 9,000/ton (YTD: USD 9,185/ton). MDKA remains our top pick (TP: IDR 1,800; FY25 EV/EBITDA: 10.9x), backed by clear profitability path from various projects commencement.

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