• Indonesia’s Feb-25 trade surplus surged to USD 3.12 bn, significantly exceeding both SSI’s and market expectations of USD 2.18 bn and USD 2.45 bn, respectively. Our projection was lower than the realized figure, as the surge in exports outpaced expectations, whereas imports followed our anticipated trajectory.
• Exports grew 14.05% YoY, marking the 11th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace since Jan-23. This was well above the 9.1% market forecast and represented a significant acceleration from 4.68% in Jan-25. The sharp increase in exports was likely driven by resilient global demand for Indonesian commodities and manufactured goods, coupled with a competitive IDR.
• ⁠On the import side, purchases increased 2.3% YoY, exceeding market expectations of 0.6% growth but remaining within our (SSI) projected range. This follows a 2.67% contraction in Jan-25, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand, particularly for capital goods and raw materials. The modest import growth suggests stabilizing industrial activity, in line with Feb-25 PMI surge. However, there is a potential risk of unabsorbed inventory, given the anomalous subdued demand before and during Ramadan.
• For the full year 2024, Indonesia recorded a USD 31.04 bn trade surplus, a decline from USD 36.89 bn in 2023. This reflects a more balanced trade environment, as global demand softens and imports normalize after pandemic-induced distortions. The narrowing of the trade surplus is consistent with the broader macroeconomic trend of rebalancing external trade dynamics, shifting away from the extraordinary surpluses recorded in previous years.
• Looking ahead, the sustainability of Indonesia’s trade surplus remains uncertain, as external risks and shifting domestic demand could influence trade flows in 2025. While exports have had a strong start to the year, challenges remain. Softening global demand from key trading partners such as China, the US, and Europe could dampen export momentum, particularly in the manufacturing and resource-based sectors. Additionally, commodity price volatility remains a key risk, as fluctuations in global energy and mineral prices may impact Indonesia’s export revenues. Given these factors, Indonesia’s trade surplus is expected to decline gradually throughout 2025 as we face ongoing external risks.