Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

05 May 2023

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Waspadai potensi take profit di pasar obligasi

Kami memperkirakan pasar obligasi Indonesia berpotensi mengalami konsolidasi untuk beberapa waktu ke depan karena a) selisih imbal hasil (yield spread) antara INDOGB dan UST 10-tahun yang sudah semakin menipis menjadi 305 bps semalam (4/5) dan b) kurva yield spread INDOGB 10- dan 2-tahun yang semakin flat di 25 bps, mendekati titik terendah di 22 bps per 21 November 2022 (Lihat Chart 2). Di saat yang bersamaan, yield spread UST 10- dan 2-tahun sudah semakin menipis dan mencapai -41 bps  semalam. Nilai tertinggi yield spread UST 10- dan 2-tahun sejak awal tahun adalah sebesar -39 bps per 25 Maret 2023 (lihat Chart 3). Melihat pergerakan sebelumnya, kami melihat potensi terjadinya aksi take profit dalam waktu dekat. Oleh sebab itu, kami mengingatkan investor agar waspada terhadap kemungkinan ini. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan terkonsolidasi di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Hal yang sama juga bisa terjadi pada Rupiah dengan konsolidasi pada rentang IDR 14,650-14,750 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pemegang obligasi WSKT menolak proposal penundaan pembayaran bunga. Proposal penundaan pembayaran bunga yang ditolak adalah pembayaran bunga ke 11 untuk Obligasi Berkelanjutan IV PT Waskita Karya Tahap I Tahun 2020 periode 6 Mei 2023 hingga 6 Agustus 2023 dengan tingkat kupon 10.75% per tahun atau setara dengan IDR 135.5bn. Berdasarkan laporan keuangan 1Q23, nilai kas WSKT turun menjadi IDR 7.5tn (FY22: IDR 8.9tn) akibat meningkatnya penggunaan kas untuk aktivitas operasi menjadi IDR -467.6bn (FY22: IDR -106.6bn). (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: ECB naikkan suku bunga acuan Refinancing Rate (MRO) sebesar 25 bps menjadi 3.75%. Kenaikan ini sesuai dengan konsensus terkini, tapi lebih rendah dari skenario median para analis moneter zona Euro di bulan Maret yang memperkirakan suku bunga MRO Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) naik 50 bps menjadi 4%. Menurut kami, perlambatan laju kenaikan suku bunga di zona Euro juga dipengaruhi oleh krisis perbankan di Amerika Serikat yang sempat menghantam Credit Suisse pada bulan Maret lalu. Berdasarkan data inflasi zona Euro yang masih tinggi di kisaran 7% yoy pada bulan April, kami memperkirakan ECB masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga hingga 3Q23 minimal sebanyak 50 bps menjadi 4.25%. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Surplus anggaran BI naik pada 2022 menjadi IDR 21.8tn (FY21: IDR 19.2tn). Kenaikan surplus anggaran Bank Indonesia terjadi di tengah kenaikan beban Bank Indonesia sebesar 30.9% menjadi IDR 92.8tn (FY21: IDR 70.9tn) akibat beban burden sharing selama pandemi COVID-19. BI diprediksi akan mengalami defisit anggaran sebesar IDR -20tn pada 2023. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0065, PBS030, PBS032, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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