Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

26 April 2023

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Waspadai koreksi pasca-libur Lebaran, tetap optimis dengan pasar obligasi

Kami memprediksi koreksi yang cukup tajam di pasar saham Indonesia (IHSG) hari ini. Dalam seminggu terakhir, pasar saham dan komoditas global terkoreksi tajam sebesar -1.3% (Dow Jones), -2.9% (Nasdaq), -2.3% (MSCI emerging markets), -4.7% (minyak mentah Brent), dan -3.9% (indeks komoditas S&P-Goldman Sachs). Akan tetapi, kami masih optimis dengan kondisi pasar obligasi Indonesia. Pasar obligasi global bergerak positif dalam seminggu terakhir yang ditandai dengan penurunan imbal hasil (yield) UST 10-tahun sebesar -18 bps menjadi 3.4% dan Bund 10-tahun sebesar -9 bps menjadi 2.38%. Mempertimbangkan hal ini, kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan menguat ke rentang 6.45-6.55% hari ini. Sementara itu, kami memprediksi Rupiah akan bergerak stabil dalam rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD karena stabilitas indeks dolar di rentang 101.75-101.95 selama seminggu terakhir.

Fixed Income News: Fitch menarik peringkat utang Sritex. Fitch Ratings Indonesia menarik peringkat jangka panjang PT Sri Rejeki Isman (Sritex) yang sebelumnya tercatat ‘RD(idn)’. Peringkat RD mengindikasikan perusahaan telah mengalami gagal bayar obligasi dan utang lainnya tetapi belum mengajukan prosedur formal kepailitan. Fitch juga menarik peringkat utang USD Sritex yang sebelumnya tercatat ‘C’ dengan peringkat pengembalian (recovery rating) ‘RR4’. (Fitch)

Global Economic News: Ekspansi PMI manufaktur dan jasa AS lebih kuat dari ekspektasi pasar. PMI jasa Amerika Serikat menguat diluar dugaan di bulan April menjadi 53.7 (Mar: 52.6 & Cons: 51.5). Hal yang sama juga terjadi atas PMI manufaktur AS, yang berbalik diluar dugaan dari kontraksi menjadi ekspansi sebesar 50.4 (Mar: 49.2 & Cons: 49). Ekspansi PMI manufaktur dan jasa yang lebih kuat dari konsensus di bulan April membuat 79% analis di pasar yakin bahwa the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.25% pada hari Rabu minggu depan (3/5). (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Bank Indonesia yakin inflasi akan kembali ke rentang 3±1% pada Agustus 2023. Prediksi inflasi BI bulan ini lebih optimis dari proyeksi BI pada bulan sebelumnya, yang memperkirakan inflasi baru akan kembali ke rentang 3±1% pada bulan September 2023. Menurut pandangan kami, hal ini bisa saja terjadi dengan syarat inflasi bulanan Lebaran tidak melebihin 0.8% mom. Dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi ini, kami memperkirakan BI berpotensi memangkas suku bunga acuan 7DRRR sebesar maksimal 125 bps menjadi 4.5% pada 2H23 (lihat juga BI’s optimism for faster disinflation). (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 April 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 April 2023 (Eng)

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