Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

08 May 2023

By

Waspada potensi koreksi di pasar obligasi

Investor global melakukan rotasi aset ke saham dan komoditas dari obligasi dan emas pasca-rilis data pasar tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat bulan April Jumat lalu (5/5). Indeks-indeks saham di AS tercatat naik lebih dari 1.5%, bahkan indeks Nasdaq naik 2.2%. Sedangkan, pasar obligasi mengalami tekanan jual, tercermin dari kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun sebesar masing-masing 6 dan 10 bps menjadi 3.44% dan 2.29%. Hal ini menyebabkan selisih yield antara UST dan INDOGB 10-tahun menipis menjadi 301 bps yang merupakan level yang kurang menarik bagi investor asing untuk mengambil posisi beli. Oleh karena itu, kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan melemah ke rentang 6.45-6.55% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan mengalami konsolidasi pada rentang IDR 14,650-14,750 per USD.

Fixed Income News: WSKT gagal bayar bunga ke-11 Obligasi Berkelanjutan IV Tahap I Tahun 2020. PT Waskita Karya mengumumkan ketidakmampuan membayar bunga obligasi tersebut setelah Rapat Umum Pemegang Obligasi (RUPO) menolak usulan dari WSKT untuk menunda pembayaran bunga periode 6 Maret – 6 Agustus 2023. WSKT beralasan bahwa perusahaan sedang berada dalam masa standstill karena tengah melakukan review secara komprehensif terhadap Master Restructuring Agreement yang efektif sejak 7 Februari – 15 Juni 2023. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Pasar tenaga kerja AS masih ekspansif di bulan April. Hal tersebut tercermin dari kenaikan non-farm payrolls yang melebihi ekspektasi pasar menjadi 253,000 (Mar: 165,000 & Cons: 180,000). Sementara itu, tingkat pengangguran turun menjadi 3.4% (Mar: 3.5% & Cons.: 3.6%) dan tingkat partisipasi anggkatan kerja bertahan di 62.6% (Mar: 62.6% & Cons: 62.5%). Walaupun data-data ini menunjukkan ekpansi, pasar meyakini the Fed tetap akan mempertahankan arah kebijakan moneter yang diumumkan sebelumnya, yaitu menahan suku bunga acuan FFR di 5.25% pada bulan Juni 2023. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Tingkat pengangguran turun di Februari menjadi 5.45% (Feb-2022: 5.83%). Sementara itu, tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja naik menjadi 69.3% (Feb-2022: 69.1%). Walaupun kondisi di pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia membaik, tingkat kualitas lapangan kerja yang tersedia semakin mengkhawatirkan akibat naiknya proporsi kegiatan pekerjaan informal menjadi 60.12% (Feb-Mar 2023: 60%). Menurut kami, tersendatnya  perbaikan kualitas lapangan kerja dapat berdampak negatif terhadap konsumsi domestik karena upah dan jam kerja di sektor informal cenderung lebih rendah daripada di sektor formal. (BPS)

Recommendation: FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0065, PBS030, PBS032, PBS035.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Mei 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 15 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 29, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 29 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 29, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 28, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 28 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 28, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 27, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 27 December 2023 (window dressing)

Daily Report

Dec 27, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 22, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 22 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 22, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan pada bulan Desember di tengah euforia dovish pivot

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Outlook 2024 – Global Dovish Pivot Euphoria

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Waspadai batas resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST di 3.8%

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 21, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 21 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

Market players are disappointed with the BoJ’s policy

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 20, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 20 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

Waspadai overbought instrumen INDOGB dan INDON

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 19, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 19 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot The Fed meluas ke ECB

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Surplus neraca dagang November menipis akibat meningkatnya impor menjelang libur akhir tahun

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 18, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 18 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 15, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight – 11M23 Auto Sales

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 15, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 15 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Cement Sector: 11M23 Cement Sales

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Strategy report – 2024 Market Outlook

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

Gap IHSG Vs. LQ 45 & IDX 80 tekan Rupiah, SBN; Pasar proyeksikan pemangkasan 150 bps Vs. Fed: 75 bps

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 14, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 14 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

Asa pasar terhadap ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed masih belum pupus

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 13, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 13 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 12, 2023

GOTO: BUY (From HOLD), TP at 120 – A New Hope

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 12, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 12 December 2023

Economic & Fixed Income

Dec 11, 2023

Menguatnya pasar tenaga kerja AS picu aksi jual UST

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 11, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 11 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 11, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

Waspadai efek BOJ dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 8, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 08 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Emiten Report

Dec 7, 2023

BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 6,100 – Notes from Analyst Gathering

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

Yield 10Y UST sentuh 4.1% akibat ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 7, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 07 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

Bullish rally global berlanjut, waspadai apresiasi USD

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 6, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Desember 2023

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 5, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Desember 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

NCKL: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,500 – Buying Manhattan for Beads

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

Banking Sector – Overweight – 10M23 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Dec 4, 2023

Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Weekly 2023-12-4