Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

19 February 2025

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Unilever Indonesia (UNVR): IDR 1,375 — HOLD, SSI TP: IDR 1,400 (From IDR 1,800); Cons. TP: IDR 1,822

Strength

Slight YoY recovery in market share to 34.7% (Dec-23: 33.9%; Oct-23: 38.5%), mainly driven by the HPC segment, with Tresemme, Ponds, and Vaseline contributing to market share gains of +60-250 bps; shorter receivable days, supported by transformation initiatives (pricing harmonization, customer reduction & DT digital transformation) leading to greater  efficiencies

 

Weakness

Transformation costs pressured profitability cutting 4Q24 gross margin to 44.5% (3Q24: 45.5%, 4Q23: 48.4%); rising contribution from value-segment to caused lower margins; 4Q24 OPM fell to 6.7% (3Q24: 8.7%, 4Q23: 10.2%), mainly on higher G&A costs, particularly trade-mark +8.8% QoQ and remuneration +170% QoQ, leading to all-time low quarterly earnings

 

Opportunity

Easing geopolitical tensions could drive higher sales volumes; UNVR’s planned ASP increase in 2025F could provide margin support; centralized raw materials procurement strategy should help mitigate margin pressure, particularly amid elevated commodity prices

 

Threat

Intense competition and weak purchasing power are expected to continue weighing on UNVR’s performance; disappointing FY24 results could lead further analyst earnings downgrades, driving continued share price underperformance

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