• Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.04% YoY in 3Q25, coming in exactly in line with SSI Research’s forecast of 5.04%, while slightly exceeding market expectations of around 5.0%. The outcome represented modest easing from 5.12% growth in 2Q, which had been the strongest pace since 2Q23. The 3Q performance suggests that Indonesia’s growth momentum remains resilient, although moderating gradually in response to softer domestic demand conditions and evolving external headwinds.
• ⁠The deceleration in headline growth was driven primarily by easing fixed investment, which slowed to 5.04% from 6.99% in 2Q, as businesses adopted more cautious stance amid tighter financial conditions and global uncertainties. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, also moderated to 4.89% from 4.97%, reflecting the lagged impact of inflation on household purchasing power. On the external side, export growth eased to 9.91% from 10.95%, partly due to the impact of recently implemented U.S. tariffs on Indonesian goods. Meanwhile, imports rose just 1.18%, sharply down from 11.48% in 2Q, as a weaker IDR and softer domestic demand reduced appetite. The contraction in imports, however, helped support the overall contribution of net exports to headline growth.
• In contrast, government spending rebounded strongly, growing 5.49% after contracting in 2Q, reflecting improved budget execution and fiscal support aimed at sustaining momentum in priority programs. This fiscal rebound helped cushion moderation in private sector activity and underpinned the broader resilience of the economic expansion.
• Looking forward, we expect Indonesia’s growth trend to remain steady but not significantly accelerate in the near term. Global demand uncertainties, tariff-related pressures, and geopolitical risks may continue to weigh on export performance. Domestically, the recovery trajectory will depend on further improvements in real household incomes, targeted fiscal measures, and the pace of credit expansion to productive sectors. With the 3Q outcome precisely matching our expectation, SSI maintains its full-year growth outlook at 5.01%, reflecting an economy that remains stable, supported by fiscal policy, but still navigating a challenging global environment. As strategic investments in downstream industries, energy transition infrastructure, and digital ecosystems continue to unfold, we see increasing potential for stronger and more broad-based growth going into 2026.