Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

24 November 2025

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Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 24 November 2025

Highlights

  • Current Account Surplus Strengthens External Stability: Indonesia posted a USD 4.0bn current account surplus (1.1% of GDP) in 3Q25—the first since 1Q23—reinforcing rupiah stability and improving policy flexibility amid volatile global markets.

 

  • Fiscal Pressure Mounts as Revenue Lags and Spending Surges: As of October, the deficit reached IDR 479.7 tn (2.02% of GDP). Revenue performance is behind pace (tax at 71.6%), while IDR 934.5 tn of spending must be executed in Nov–Dec—one of the largest year-end disbursement waves in recent years.

 

  • BI Maintains Rate at 4.75% with Stable Macro Backdrop: BI kept its benchmark rate unchanged, supported by contained inflation and resilient domestic demand, while improving real yield dynamics provide buffer against global volatility.

 

  • Foreign Flows Support JCI Despite Regional Volatility: Equities saw consistent foreign buying in banks and selected cyclicals, helping the JCI hold above 8,400 even as regional markets posted broad declines.

 

  • Policy Momentum Builds Across Energy, Digital, and Human Capital Sectors: Major developments include the ADB’s USD 470mn renewable-energy loan, Danantara’s overseas expansion, rapid MBG scaling (44 million beneficiaries), and acceleration of digital learning infrastructure—all pointing to broad-based structural reform momentum.

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