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06 February 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (29 January – 4 February 2025)

Coffee prices surged 4.6% last week to a new all-time-high record, as global deficit concerns persisted driven by adverse weather that hurt coffee output in Brazil and Vietnam - the world’s top exporters. This situation prompted hedge funds to raise their bullish bets to the highest level in six months. The spike in coffee prices is likely to have the most significant impact on MYOR (13% of COGS).

Cocoa prices fell -6.5% over the past 5D due to increased rainfall in certain regions of West Africa, which has created favorable conditions for cocoa tree development. This has boosted expectations for strong primary crop in Ivory Coast, the world’s leading producer. Nonetheless, concerns persist over the lingering impact of arid conditions in certain regions of Nigeria, which may pose risks to overall supply. We anticipate the elevated cocoa prices will impact MYOR the most (11% of COGS).

CPO prices declined -2.6% over the past week as negative sentiment intensified following Trump’s announcement on expanding oil and gas drilling, raising concerns about potential crude oil oversupply, which could weaken demand for biofuels and put additional pressure on palm oil prices. Lower CPO prices will benefit UNVR>ICBP>CMRY.

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