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05 March 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (26 February – 4 March 2025)

Cocoa prices fell 9.3% last week as supply worries eased following the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)'s latest forecast. In its first projection for the 2024/25 season, ICCO stated that global cocoa supply is expected to record 142kt surplus, following three consecutive seasons of deficit. We believe lower cocoa prices will benefit MYOR the most.

Sugar prices dropped 7.6% over the last five days, driven by oversupply concerns following record-breaking raw sugar deliveries of 1.7 MMT reported by Wilmar International Ltd and Sucres et Denrees SA. Additionally, the Indian government plans to allow the country’s mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the export restrictions imposed in 2023. Lower sugar prices will benefit MYOR > CMRY > SIDO > ULTJ > KLBF > UNVR > ICBP.

Coffee prices surged 6.2% over the past five trading days, primarily driven by ongoing below-average rainfall in Brazil. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee-growing region, recorded just 11.4 mm of rainfall during the week ended February 22, or 24% of historical average. We believe higher coffee prices will hurt MYOR most.

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