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05 March 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (24 – 28 February 2025)

Over the past week, avg. DOC prices jumped to IDR 7,250 (+38.1% WoW, +27.8% MoM, +45.0% YTD). Higher trend was observed with avg. broiler prices, which rose to IDR 22,330/kg (+3.5% WoW, -3.6% MoM, 0.0% YTD) as demand increased in the lead up to Ramadan. Historically, broiler prices were able to reach IDR 24,000 during Ramadan, indicating potential upside of 7.5% from current level.

For raw materials, domestic corn prices slightly increased, averaging IDR 4,792/kg (YTD: +5.9%), while SBM slipped to USD 292/t (-3.5% WoW), with YTD average of USD 302/t (YTD: -5.2%). Brazil’s increased soybean harvest expectations (+24.5Mt, +8.2% YoY) drove -14.0% YoY drop in SBM prices.

Thus, higher production estimates in Brazil has us forecasting limited upside for soybean meal prices, potentially supporting poultry players’ profit margins. However, concerns over potential bird flu spread from the US to Asia could pose risks to poultry companies in our coverage. At the moment, JPFA and MAIN have the most attractive valuations, supported by voluntary culling and favorable government policies, including free meals program and lower GPS import quotas (versus 2023).

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